Friday, November 30th 02:53 PM IST

India Q4 Gold demand to outpace China

# WGC  # India gold  # China gold  # gold demand  

Demand in India should rebound after falling about 20-25% in 2012 to 750-800 tonnes.

TOKYO(BullionStreet): World's largest consumers India and China are to provide gold's bull run a smooth sailing, 13th in a row, to next year, according to WGC MD Marcus Grubb.

Global gold demand in 2013 should be led by further strength in Chinese demand and a recovery in India, helping the precious metal continue its bull run into its 13th year, he said in an interview.

"Looking at data we have on imports into India and also premiums in Mumbai, demand's been very strong so far in Q4 in India, I think actually stronger than in China," he said, adding that gold purchases before the Lunar New Year will help boost China's demand in the fourth quarter.

Demand in India should rebound after falling about 20-25% in 2012 to 750-800 tonnes, he said without giving a projection for Indian growth.

Chinese gold demand is likely to grow around 10% in 2013 from about 800 tonnes this year, as the world's second-largest economy is expected to pick up pace.

India could probably come in around 750 to 800 tonnes for (2012), down from 1,000 last year and Chinese demand in 2012 is expected to reach around 800 tonnes, up from roughly 778 tonnes a year ago.

Grubb said gold demand in India and China in the fourth quarter looked to be strong. He also cited other drivers for his projections for higher demand in 2013, including robust Western investment demand due to lingering global financial problems and purchases by central banks.

Global gold demand is likely to fall by around 5 to 7% in 2012 to around 4,100 tonnes, he added. The world's total consumer gold demand in the first three quarters of the year fell 7% from a year earlier to 3,185.5 tonnes.

India's gold demand during the period dropped 22% to 612 tonnes, the WGC said earlier this month.

Central banks continued to diversify their reserves into gold and official sector demand is expected to reach 450-500 tonnes this year, compared with 456 tonnes last year, which was the highest since 1964, he added.

Robust demand in the official sector is expected to continue into 2013, he added. Grubb also said the bull run on gold markets is expected to continue for a 13th straight year in 2013, without giving any price forecasts.

Gold has been up around 10% so far this year at about $1,730 an ounce.

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